FOMC June meeting: Warsh's first as Chair

On 15 June 2026 the Federal Open Market Committee approached its scheduled 16-17 June meeting in Washington, the fourth of eight scheduled 2026 meetings on the Committee’s calendar and the first meeting under Chair Kevin M. Warsh, who was sworn in on 22 May 2026 for a four-year term as Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ending 21 May 2030. Warsh succeeded Jerome H. Powell, who served as chair pro tempore from 15 May 2026 until Warsh’s swearing-in and who continues as a member of the Board of Governors through 31 January 2028 under the separate fourteen-year Governor term to which he was confirmed in 2014. The Senate confirmed Warsh as Chair on 13 May 2026 by a vote of 54 to 45, the narrowest Fed Chair confirmation in the modern era; Warsh had been separately confirmed as a member of the Board of Governors the prior day, 51 to 45.¹²³ The Federal Open Market Committee, established by section 12A of the Federal Reserve Act and codified at 12 U.S.C. § 263, comprises the seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the twelve Federal Reserve Bank presidents (the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York permanently, and the other four selected on a rotating basis from the remaining eleven Reserve Bank Presidents).⁴ The Committee’s published 2026 calendar provides for eight meetings during the calendar year, with the policy statement and Summary of Economic Projections released on the second day of the meeting at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on 17 June 2026 and the Chair’s press conference following at 2:30 p.m. Eastern Time.⁵

1. The Federal Reserve Act dual mandate at section 2A, codified at 12 U.S.C. § 225a, directs the Board of Governors and the Federal Open Market Committee to “maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy’s long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.”⁶ The Committee’s Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, first adopted in January 2012 and revised periodically, operationalises the dual mandate through a 2 percent longer-run goal for personal consumption expenditures inflation and a longer-run goal for the maximum-employment objective that is “not directly measurable” and is informed by “a wide range of indicators of labor market conditions.”⁷

2. Chair Warsh’s first FOMC meeting follows a Senate confirmation marked by unusual partisanship. The 54-45 vote on 13 May 2026 was the narrowest Senate confirmation of a Federal Reserve Chair in the modern era; Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa.) was the only Democratic senator to vote for confirmation. Warsh’s prior service as a Federal Reserve Governor (24 February 2006 to 31 March 2011) informs his return to the Board; the administration’s public preference for lower interest rates, voiced repeatedly during the confirmation process, frames the policy environment of his first meeting.³⁸ Federal Open Market Committee Chair selection follows the Committee’s Rules of Organization at the first regularly scheduled meeting on or after 1 January each year; under FOMC custom the Chair of the Board of Governors holds the FOMC Chair role and the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York holds the FOMC Vice Chair role. Warsh’s election as FOMC Chair is contemplated as standard intra-Committee succession following the Board Chair transition.⁹

3. The policy backdrop combines a wartime energy-price shock, a tariff environment with significant price-level pass-through implications and an unresolved fiscal cycle. The United States has been at war with Iran since the 28 February 2026 strikes of Operation Epic Fury; Iran’s interference with Strait of Hormuz transit from March 2026 produced what the International Energy Agency describes as the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market, with Brent crude averaging $103 per barrel in March 2026 (a $32 month-over-month increase) and reaching a daily peak near $128 on 2 April per the U.S. Energy Information Administration, before easing after the April ceasefire and diplomatic track.¹⁰ Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 tariffs on primary aluminum, steel and copper at 50 percent ad valorem on covered primary metals and 25 percent on covered derivative articles under Proclamation 11021 of 2 April 2026 (as modified by the 1 June 2026 amending proclamation) are in effect through 31 December 2027.¹¹ Office of the United States Trade Representative Section 301 investigations under 19 U.S.C. § 2411 of 16 trading partners across 21 sectors proceed under the 12-month determination deadline at 19 U.S.C. § 2414(a)(2), with the three-month status mark reached on 11 June 2026.¹² The FY2027 appropriations cycle is 109 days from the 1 October 2026 fiscal-year start under 31 U.S.C. § 1102 with no chamber-passed FY2027 concurrent budget resolution and no chamber-passed FY2027 regular appropriations bill as of 13 June 2026.¹³

4. The Committee operates independent of presidential policy-direction in its conduct of monetary policy. Executive Order 14215 of 18 February 2025, “Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies,” which extended Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs pre-publication review and Office of Management and Budget performance- standards and strategic-plan clearance to the independent regulatory agencies defined at 44 U.S.C. § 3502(5), expressly exempted the Federal Open Market Committee’s conduct of monetary policy from coverage; the order reached the Board of Governors only as to its supervision and regulation of financial institutions.¹⁴ The Committee’s statutory independence in monetary-policy conduct rests on the for-cause-removal protection for Governors under 12 U.S.C. § 242, which provides that each member of the Board “shall … continue in office for the term for which he was appointed unless sooner removed for cause by the President.” The constitutional question of whether the for-cause protection is consistent with Article II presidential removal authority under Seila Law LLC v. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, 591 U.S. 197 (2020), and successor decisions has not been resolved as to the Board of Governors specifically; the Seila Law majority declined in footnote 8 to extend its holding to the Federal Reserve, observing that “even assuming financial institutions like the Second Bank and the Federal Reserve can claim a special historical status, the CFPB is in an entirely different league.”¹⁵¹⁶ Two pending Supreme Court cases frame the question as the Committee meets: Trump v. Cook, No. 25A312, argued 21 January 2026 on the attempted removal of Governor Lisa Cook, and Trump v. Slaughter, No. 25-332, argued 8 December 2025 on the Federal Trade Commission’s for-cause removal provision; both await decision as of 15 June 2026.¹⁷