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Democrats sweep off-year contests; Spanberger and Sherrill win, Mamdani wins NYC

4 November 2025 · written 8 June 2026

On the evening of 4 November 2025, projected results from the off-year elections — held during day 35 of the ongoing federal government shutdown — showed Democratic candidates winning every major contested statewide office. Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger (D) defeated Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears (R) in the Virginia gubernatorial race by approximately 15 points (57-42 per Associated Press Decision Desk calls), the largest Democratic gubernatorial margin in Virginia since Albertis Harrison’s 64-37 win over H. Clyde Pearson in 1961.12 In the Virginia Lieutenant Governor’s race, former State Senator Ghazala Hashmi (D) defeated John Reid (R); in the Attorney General’s race, former Delegate Jay Jones (D) defeated incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares.3 In New Jersey, U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill (D) defeated former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by approximately 13 points in an open-seat race to succeed term-limited Governor Phil Murphy (D).4 In New York City, State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani (D) won the mayor’s race over former Governor Andrew Cuomo (Independent) and Republican Curtis Sliwa.5 Three sitting Pennsylvania Supreme Court Democratic justices — Daniel D. McCaffery, Kevin Dougherty and Christine Donohue — were retained by approximately 65-35 margins.6 California Proposition 50, a mid-decade redistricting measure, and Maine Question 1, a voter- identification measure, were on the ballot in their respective states.78

  1. The 4 November 2025 results delivered Virginia Democrats a state-government trifecta — the Governor’s office, House of Delegates and State Senate — for the first time since the 2021 cycle, when Republicans took the Governor’s office under Glenn Youngkin and flipped the House of Delegates.9 Legislation previously vetoed by Governor Youngkin — including bills on minimum wage increase (HB 1, 2024 session), recreational marijuana retail framework (SB 448, 2024 session) and paid family and medical leave (HB 373, 2024 session) — returns to active legislative consideration in the 2026 session, subject to the Virginia Constitution’s biennial-session structure and the Governor’s item-veto authority under Va. Const. art. V, § 6.1011

  2. Off-year election cycles consistently produce smaller and demographically distinct electorates than presidential-year cycles, with disproportionate participation by older and higher-income voters; party committees and named analysts read the 2025 margins against the 2021 baseline (Youngkin plus-2; Ciattarelli loss minus-3 to Murphy), with the Democratic Governors Association characterising the results as evidence of “a national mood against the administration.”1213

  3. Under New Jersey law, Sherrill assumes office on 20 January 2026 (NJ Const. art. V, § 1, ¶ 1); under Virginia law, Spanberger assumes office on 17 January 2026 (Va. Const. art. V, § 1).1415 Federal Election Commission and party-committee filings recalibrate candidate-recruitment and donor-commitment timetables in light of the off-year margins.16

Footnotes

  1. Virginia Department of Elections, official 2025 statewide election returns (Spanberger defeating Earle-Sears in the gubernatorial race). https://www.elections.virginia.gov/resultsreports/election-results/2025 ↩

  2. Virginia Department of Elections historical results archive (Harrison-Pearson 1961 gubernatorial result). https://historical.elections.virginia.gov/elections/search/year_from:1961/year_to:1961/office_id:5 ↩

  3. Virginia Department of Elections, official 2025 returns for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General races. ↩

  4. New Jersey Division of Elections, official 2025 gubernatorial election returns (Sherrill defeating Ciattarelli). https://www.nj.gov/state/elections/election-information-2025.shtml ↩

  5. New York City Board of Elections, official 2025 mayoral election returns (Mamdani defeating Cuomo and Sliwa). https://www.vote.nyc ↩

  6. Pennsylvania Department of State, official 2025 retention election returns (Justices McCaffery, Dougherty and Donohue retained). https://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElections ↩

  7. California Secretary of State, official 2025 statewide ballot measure returns (Proposition 50). https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results ↩

  8. Maine Secretary of State, official 2025 statewide ballot measure returns (Question 1). ↩

  9. Virginia General Assembly chamber-composition history; 2021 Republican gubernatorial and House-of-Delegates pickups under Glenn Youngkin. ↩

  10. Virginia General Assembly, 2024 regular session, vetoed bills HB 1 (minimum wage), SB 448 (recreational marijuana retail framework), and HB 373 (paid family and medical leave). https://lis.virginia.gov/cgi-bin/legp604.exe?ses=241 ↩

  11. Constitution of Virginia, art. V, § 6 (Governor’s veto authority). https://law.lis.virginia.gov/constitution/article5/section6/ ↩

  12. Pew Research Center, “Off-Year Elections and the 2024 Voter Universe,” 2024 (off-year electorate composition relative to presidential-year electorates). ↩

  13. Democratic Governors Association, statement on 4 November 2025 results. ↩

  14. Constitution of New Jersey, art. V, § 1, ¶ 1 (Governor’s term beginning 20 January). https://www.njleg.state.nj.us/constitution ↩

  15. Constitution of Virginia, art. V, § 1 (Governor’s term beginning Saturday after the second Wednesday in January). https://law.lis.virginia.gov/constitution/article5/section1/ ↩

  16. Federal Election Commission candidate filings and party-committee post-election memoranda, November 2025. ↩

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