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Two weeks after ceasefire collapse, Houthis embargo Saudi-bound shipping

22 July 2026

By 22 July 2026 the ceasefire under the 17 June Islamabad Memorandum had been in collapse for two weeks. On 7 July Iran struck three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz; Vice President JD Vance said “[t]hat artery has got to remain open,” the administration rescinded the Treasury oil-sales licence issued under the memorandum, and US Central Command struck over 80 targets that night, including more than 60 IRGC small boats, “to impose heavy costs” for the ceasefire violation.12 On 8 July, speaking at the NATO summit in Türkiye, President Trump declared the ceasefire “over” — “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran” — and a second wave struck approximately 90 targets across southern and northeastern Iran, including air defenses, coastal surveillance, missile and drone storage, naval and logistics sites; overnight into 9 July Iran launched drones and missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and on 9 July fired ten ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, which hosts US forces.34 Since the collapse the United States — whose campaign carries the designation Operation Epic Fury — reinstated its blockade in the Hormuz area effective 14 July, and near-daily strike waves followed, including on 15 July and 20 July.56 On 20 July Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea announced a maritime embargo barring vessels serving Saudi ports, of any flag, from the Bab al-Mandab — opening a new front against the US-aligned Gulf states — and on 21 July Reuters reported two tankers carrying Saudi crude to Asia turning back; Reuters reported Yanbu loadings averaging above 4 million barrels per day since June — against roughly 973,000 barrels per day a year earlier — and reaching about 4.7 million barrels per day around 13 July.789 The Pentagon’s casualty system recorded 18 US service members killed and approximately 447 wounded as of 20 July — nearly 100 of the wounded in the two weeks since the restart; Time’s 20 July accounting identified 17 of the dead by name, and The Intercept reported irregularities in the Pentagon’s casualty data and a US official alleging the wounded count understates the total.10 On 21 July President Trump hosted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the White House — Aoun said Lebanon would end hostility with Israel “forever” and sought Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and US backing on Hezbollah disarmament — while threatening to strike the “front door” of the deeply buried complex at Pickaxe Mountain (Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La) near Natanz, suspected of housing enrichment or centrifuge-assembly halls.1112 Brent crude rose 2 percent to settle at $91.01 per barrel on 21 July, a five-week high, on the strikes and the Houthi blockade threat.13

  1. The congressional war-powers posture reset with the restart. After the House adopted H.Con.Res.38 (directing removal of US forces from hostilities against Iran under 50 U.S.C. § 1544(c)) 215-208 on 3 June, the Senate adopted it 50-48 on 23 June — Republicans Cassidy, Collins, Murkowski and Paul voting yes and Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa.) the only Democratic no — and on 24 June voted 47-50-1 against advancing a separate, binding Kaine-led measure, with Senator Paul voting present and Senator Cassidy switching to no; H.Con.Res.38 itself remained adopted. Senator Tim Kaine (D-Va.) — whose earlier binding measure the Senate had advanced 50-47 in May — said after the July restart that he would force a vote on a new, binding joint resolution, and the administration filed a fresh 48-hour report to Congress in mid-July.1415 The restart’s war-powers arithmetic turns on whether the 1 May termination letter and the June memorandum closed the original 60-day clock under § 1544(b) — restarting it with the July hostilities — or whether the clock never validly stopped.16

  2. The Houthi blockade extends the war to the Red Sea corridor against Saudi Arabia specifically — a front that reprises the 2023-2025 Houthi shipping campaign but with a named state target. Ansar Allah has been designated a Foreign Terrorist Organization since the State Department designation effective 4 March 2025 under the directive of Executive Order 14175 of 22 January 2025 (see Houthis designated foreign terrorist organization); a closure of the Bab al-Mandab to Saudi traffic would put at risk roughly 7 percent of global oil supply on top of the Hormuz disruption.717

  3. The cost accounting is contested inside the administration’s own figures: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the Senate Appropriations Committee on 21 July that the war had cost at least $37.5 billion, while the academic Iran War Cost Tracker’s final figure for the 108-day formal conflict was $113.3 billion (built on the Pentagon’s $11.3 billion six-day figure), Moody’s Analytics estimated at least $132 billion including energy and rates effects, and Fortune reported estimates near $200 billion in June.18 Treasury’s sanctions track continued through the restart: OFAC designations of 14 July and a 15 July action against seven individuals and entities in a network procuring weapons for the Iranian government.19

Footnotes

  1. Iranian strikes on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, 7 July 2026; Vice President Vance (“That artery has got to remain open”); rescission of the Treasury oil-sales licence. ABC News, “How the US-Iran ceasefire MOU broke: a timeline.” https://abcnews.com/Politics/us-iran-ceasefire-mou-broke-timeline/story?id=134622392 ↩

  2. US Central Command, public release on the 7 July retaliatory strikes (over 80 targets including more than 60 IRGC small boats, “to impose heavy costs”), per CNN’s 7 July live coverage of the CENTCOM statement. https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/07/world/live-news/nato-summit-trump ↩

  3. President Trump at the NATO summit, 8 July 2026 (ceasefire “over”; “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran”); second strike wave of approximately 90 targets; Iranian retaliation against Jordan and US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain per IRGC statement. Washington Post, “Trump declares ceasefire with Iran has ended,” 8 July 2026. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/07/08/trump-declares-ceasefire-with-iran-has-ended/ ↩

  4. Iranian launches at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain overnight 8-9 July 2026 per the IRGC’s statement (Al Jazeera, “US strikes Iran for a second night,” 9 July 2026 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/9/us-strikes-iran-for-second-night-is-the-peace-process-all-over-now); ten ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan, 9 July 2026, per the IRGC claim and satellite-imagery coverage. https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran-ballistic-missiles-hit-us-muwaffaq-salti-air-base-jordan-satellite-images-confirm-precision-strike/ ↩

  5. Axios, “Trump Iran blockade in Strait of Hormuz starts Tuesday,” 13 July 2026 (reinstatement effective 14 July 2026). https://www.axios.com/2026/07/13/trump-iran-blockade-strait-hormuz ↩

  6. Near-daily US strike waves after the restart, including waves of 15 and 20 July 2026; Al Jazeera, “Mapping the latest US strikes across Iran,” 15 July 2026 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/mapping-the-latest-us-strikes-across-iran; Al Jazeera, “Missiles and drones fired at Gulf states after night of US strikes on Iran,” 12 July 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/12/missiles-and-drones-fired-at-gulf-states-after-night-of-us-strikes-on-iran ↩

  7. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea, announcement of a maritime embargo against vessels serving Saudi ports transiting the Bab al-Mandab, 20 July 2026, per the Associated Press, “Yemen’s Houthis announce a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia” (via The Hill) https://thehill.com/homenews/ap/ap-international/ap-yemens-houthis-announce-a-maritime-embargo-against-saudi-arabia/; OilPrice.com, “Houthis Declare Naval Blockade on Saudi Arabia as Red Sea Crisis Deepens,” 20 July 2026. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Houthis-Declare-Naval-Blockade-on-Saudi-Arabia-as-Red-Sea-Crisis-Deepens.html ↩ ↩2

  8. Jana Choukeir, Nayera Abdallah and Elwely Elwelly, “Tankers with Saudi crude turn back as Houthis open new front in US-Iran war,” Reuters, 21 July 2026 (wire republication). https://gvwire.com/2026/07/21/tankers-with-saudi-crude-turn-back-as-houthis-open-new-front-in-us-iran-war/ ↩

  9. Reuters, “Saudi Yanbu crude exports near capacity amid Houthi tensions,” 15 July 2026 (Yanbu loadings above 4 million barrels per day on average since June, against roughly 973,000 barrels per day a year earlier; about 4.7 million barrels per day around 13 July; wire republication). https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2026/07/15/saudi-yanbu-crude-exports-near-capacity-amid-houthi-tensions ↩

  10. Stars and Stripes, “Iran casualty system updates,” 21 July 2026 (Pentagon Defense Casualty Analysis System showing 18 dead and 447 injured as of the 20 July evening update) https://www.stripes.com/theaters/middle_east/2026-07-21/iran-casualty-system-updates-pentagon-22324452.html; Time, “The Seventeen U.S. Service Members Killed in the Iran War,” 20 July 2026, and “Nearly 100 U.S. Troops Injured in Two Weeks Since Iran War Resumed,” 21 July 2026 https://time.com/article/2026/07/21/iran-war-injury-toll-us-service-members-pentagon-trump/; The Intercept, 21 July 2026 (casualty-data irregularities; US official alleging undercounting). https://theintercept.com/2026/07/20/united-states-iran-war-casualties-cover-up-pentagon/ ↩

  11. Trump-Aoun Oval Office meeting, 21 July 2026 (Lebanon to end hostility with Israel “forever”; Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon; Hezbollah disarmament; Trump open to speaking with Hezbollah directly if Beirut asked). Times of Israel, “Meeting Trump in DC, Aoun says Lebanon will end hostility with Israel ‘forever.’” https://www.timesofisrael.com/meeting-trump-in-dc-aoun-says-lebanon-will-end-hostility-with-israel-forever/ ↩

  12. The War Zone, “Trump’s threat to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain bunker’s ‘front door’ underscores targeting challenges” (Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, near Natanz), 21 July 2026. https://www.twz.com/news-features/trumps-threat-to-strike-irans-pickaxe-mountain-bunkers-front-door-underscores-targeting-challenges ↩

  13. CNBC, “Oil prices rise to five-week high on US-Iran attacks, Houthi blockade threat,” 21 July 2026 (Brent up 2 percent to settle at $91.01; WTI $84.91). https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/oil-prices-dip-as-mediation-efforts-offset-us-iran-strikes.html ↩

  14. H.Con.Res.38 (119th Congress; § 5(c) / 50 U.S.C. § 1544(c)): House 215-208, 3 June 2026; Senate 50-48, 23 June 2026 (Roll Call, “Senate joins House in calling for stop to US war on Iran” https://rollcall.com/2026/06/23/senate-joins-house-in-calling-for-stop-to-us-war-on-iran/); Senate vote of 24 June 2026, 47-50-1, declining to advance the separate binding Kaine measure (Paul voting present; Cassidy switching to no), per CNN, “Senate walks back Iran war powers vote,” 24 June 2026. https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/24/politics/senate-walks-back-iran-war-powers-vote ↩

  15. Senator Tim Kaine, statements following the July 2026 restart on forcing a vote on a binding joint resolution; the administration’s 48-hour report to Congress on the resumed hostilities, mid-July 2026, per Lawfare, “White House Submits Iran War Powers Report to Congress.” https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/white-house-submits-iran-war-powers-report-to-congress ↩

  16. War Powers Resolution, 50 U.S.C. § 1544(b) (60-day termination requirement); presidential letter of 1 May 2026 (hostilities “have terminated”); Just Security, “Ongoing Iran War Reveals Necessary War Powers Reforms” (restart-clock analysis). https://www.justsecurity.org/137977/iran-hostilities-war-powers-restart-clock/ ↩

  17. Bab al-Mandeb closure risk of approximately 7 percent of global oil supply per trade-press analysis of the Houthi declaration. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Houthis-Declare-Naval-Blockade-on-Saudi-Arabia-as-Red-Sea-Crisis-Deepens.html ↩

  18. Bloomberg, “Hegseth says Iran war has cost $37.5 billion,” Senate Appropriations testimony, 21 July 2026 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-21/hegseth-says-iran-war-has-cost-37-5-billion; Iran War Cost Tracker final total https://iran-cost-ticker.com/; Moody’s Analytics estimate of at least $132 billion including energy and rates effects, as reported by the Seoul Economic Daily, 20 June 2026 https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/06/20/us-iran-war-costs-american-taxpayers-at-least-132-billion; Fortune, “How much did the Iran war cost?,” 24 June 2026. https://fortune.com/2026/06/24/how-much-did-the-iran-war-cost/ ↩

  19. U.S. Department of the Treasury, OFAC recent actions of 14 July 2026 (Iran-related designations and general license) https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20260714; Treasury press release sb0564, “Treasury Targets Global Network Procuring Weapons for Iranian Regime” (seven individuals and entities), 15 July 2026. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0564 ↩

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